IB survival · 7 min read
IB predicted grades: who sets them, what they rest on, and how to raise yours
The two kinds of prediction, the dates that matter for university applications, and what actually moves a teacher's judgement.
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IB predicted grades are your teachers' judgement of the 1–7 grade you will get in each subject, plus a predicted total out of 45. Your school sends them to universities with your application, months before you sit a single final exam, and a separate set goes to the IB before the exams. Teachers set them from the evidence they have of your work, so the honest way to raise a prediction is to give them better evidence, early enough to count.
What are the two kinds of predicted grade?
Students often talk about "my predicted grades" as one thing. In practice there are usually two sets, and they serve different purposes:
| Item | Predictions for university applications | Predictions submitted to the IB |
|---|---|---|
| Who sees them | Universities, via your school's reference or report | The IB |
| When | Before your application deadlines, so usually early in DP year 2 (some schools set them at the end of year 1) | Shortly before the exams. The deadline has historically been around 20 April for the May session and 20 October for November; your coordinator has the current date. |
| What they are for | Deciding whether to make you an offer | Key evidence if you cannot sit your exams; the IB may also sample the evidence behind them |
Some schools use the same numbers for both; others update the IB predictions after mocks. Your EE supervisor also submits a predicted grade for the Extended Essay, based on the EE grade descriptors.
Who sets your predicted grades?
Your subject teachers. Each teacher predicts the grade for their own subject. At many schools the DP coordinator or university counsellor then reviews the full set, checks it against school policy, and turns it into a predicted total including the TOK/EE core points (see how the 45 points work). There is no single IB formula for setting a prediction, so processes differ between schools. Your school's DP handbook usually describes its own.
What are predicted grades based on?
Schools differ, but teachers typically draw on some mix of:
- Tests and end-of-unit exams, ideally ones marked with IB-style mark schemes and grade boundaries.
- Mock exams, if your school holds them before predictions are due.
- Internal assessment progress: the quality of your proposal, data or draft, since the IA is 20% or more of most subject grades.
- Your trajectory: a student moving from 4s to 6s over a year is predicted differently from one stuck at 5.
- Classwork and homework, especially extended answers that look like exam questions.
What usually does not count: how much you care, how hard the subject is, or what a university requires. A teacher who predicts a 7 is putting their professional judgement, and their school's credibility with universities, behind that number.
How do universities use IB predicted grades?
UK (UCAS)
Your school puts your predicted grades in the UCAS reference. UCAS has two main deadlines each cycle:
- Mid-October (15 October in recent cycles) for any course at Oxford or Cambridge and most courses in medicine, dentistry and veterinary science.
- The equal-consideration deadline for all other courses, which has recently been in mid-January (13 January 2027 for 2027 entry, 18:00 UK time).
Check the dates for your own cycle on ucas.com, because they can change. Your school's internal deadline for a finished application comes several weeks earlier, since the reference, with your predictions, has to be written first. For early applicants that means predictions are fixed at the very start of year 2, or even at the end of year 1. Offers are usually conditional on your final IB results: a total, often with specific grades in named HL subjects.
United States
US colleges read predicted grades alongside your school report and transcript. Early action and early decision deadlines are commonly 1 or 15 November and regular decision is often around 1 January, but each college sets its own. Final IB results are often used later for credit or course placement rather than for the admission decision itself.
Elsewhere
Practice varies widely. Some universities make conditional offers on predicted grades; others decide only once final results are in, sometimes with application windows after results day. Read each university's page for IB applicants rather than assuming it works like UCAS.
The IB sends your final results to up to six universities free of charge, as long as your coordinator requests this before results are issued. Give your coordinator your list in good time.
How can you raise your predicted grades honestly?
A prediction moves when the evidence moves. Arguing for a higher number without new evidence rarely works and can cost you goodwill. These do work:
1. Ask what the prediction rests on
Ask the teacher, well before predictions are due, what they are based on and what would change them. Then act on the answer.
Less useful"I really need a 6 for my offer. Can you predict me a 6?"
More useful"I'm on a 5 at the moment. On the last test I lost most marks on the data-analysis questions. If I fix that and it shows up in the next test and my IA draft, would that be enough evidence for a 6?"
2. Build a visible trend before the deadline
One good test after a run of weak ones is easy to dismiss. Three improving results in a row is a trajectory. Work backwards from when your school sets predictions (for UCAS medicine applicants, that can be September of year 2) and make sure the improvement happens before then, not after.
3. Treat the mock as evidence, not practice
Where mocks feed into predictions, prepare for them like the real thing: timed past-paper-style questions, marked against a mark scheme, then fixing what you lost marks on. The why you're not improving guide shows how to find which marks you are actually dropping.
4. Make the IA draft count
Your IA draft is often the best single piece of evidence a teacher has of what you can do unsupervised. A focused research question, a clear method and real analysis make a higher prediction easier to justify. Rules on how much feedback a teacher may give on drafts vary by subject, so check with your teacher. For the EE, your supervisor may comment on one draft only.
5. Fix exam technique, not just content
Many students know the content of a 6 but write answers that score a 5: they ignore the command term, give one point where two are needed, or skip units. Practising with mark schemes is the fastest fix. See IB command terms and how IB mark schemes work.
Do not submit work that is not your own to lift a prediction, including AI-written drafts. It is academic misconduct, and an N or a misconduct penalty fails the Diploma outright. See using AI in your IA for what is allowed.
What if your final results differ from your predictions?
Results for the May session come out in early July, and for November in early January, on the IB candidate website using a personal code and PIN from your coordinator.
If you meet or beat the prediction
A conditional offer becomes firm once the university confirms you have met its conditions.
If you fall short
- Contact the university quickly. Whether a near-miss is still accepted is the university's decision, and practice varies by course.
- Consider an enquiry upon results (EUR). Only your school can request one, after results, and fees apply. A re-mark of externally assessed work can move a grade down as well as up, which is why the IB needs your written consent. If a re-mark changes the grade, the fee is refunded. A re-moderation of internal assessment applies to the school's sample, and those marks cannot go down. The deadline is around 15 September for the May session (around 15 March for November); check the exact date with your coordinator.
- Consider a retake. You can retake in a later session, usually November, and the higher grade counts. If the course has changed since your first attempt, the retake follows the new course. Schools set their own retake fees and are not obliged to accept external candidates. The IB timeline shows how these dates fit together.
Predictions are judgements, not guarantees, and results can land above or below them. What matters is acting quickly in July, with your coordinator, rather than waiting.
Questions students ask
Can I see my IB predicted grades?
Schools handle this differently. Many share the predictions they send to universities with the student, because you need them to choose where to apply. If yours does not, ask your university counsellor or coordinator what your school's policy is.
Can predicted grades be changed after they are sent?
That depends on your school and on the application system. Some schools review predictions after mocks, but a prediction already submitted with an application is generally what the university assesses. Ask your counsellor before you assume a later update will reach the university.
Do predicted grades affect my final IB grade?
Normally no. Your final grade comes from your marked exams and assessed coursework. Predicted grades submitted to the IB matter mainly if you cannot sit your exams, when they become key evidence.
Is it better to be over-predicted?
Not really. An inflated prediction can win an offer you then miss in July, and a teacher who over-predicts too often loses credibility. A prediction you can actually meet, backed by evidence, serves you better.